The Snowden revelations have caused a lot of debate, but are unlikely to have any long-term consequences for US–Europe relations, according to an intelligence expert. The consequences for terrorism prevention, however, may be dire.
On Thursday Brazil and Germany presented a resolution to the U.N. General Assembly, urging all countries to extend internationally guaranteed privacy rights to the Internet and other electronic communications.
Their draft resolution says that rapid technological developments are enhancing the capacity “for surveillance, interception and data collection, which may violate human rights.”
The resolution—which would not be legally binding, should it pass—comes in the wake of former NSA contractor Edward Snowden revealing that countries such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom have been spying on other countries and their leaders.
There has been quite a lot of rhetoric, but not much concrete action from European leaders. Michael C. Desch, professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame indicated that the whole affair has been a kind of storm in a teacup when it comes to US–EU relations, and that the outrage may have been a little less than sincere at times.
“[European leaders] were, like Inspector Renaud in Casablanca: ‘shocked, shocked’ to learn that they were under surveillance,” he said, “I think we [the U.S.] are sorry we got caught, but still committed to such programs.”
When it comes to the supposed ‘no spying’ deal between the U.S. and Germany, Desch does not think it will represent a true departure from the way the countries have carried out their intelligence so far.
“It is highly unlikely that there will be an across-the-board ‘no spy’ deal simply because allies, even close ones, always spy on each other,” he said. “Among the most aggressive of U.S. allies in this regard is Israel. The ‘deal’ we seem to have reached is more limited: No industrial espionage and a promise not to target Angela Merkel’s personal cell.”
When asked what kind of long-term consequences the whole affair might have on US–EU relations or the way the U.S. intelligence agencies operate in Europe, Desch answered simply, “None.”
One notable consequence that the Snowden revelations has had, however, is that normally very media-shy intelligence officials have made rare public appearances to talk about their operations. Last week, NSA leaders spoke before Congress about their activities, defending their work and pointing out the underlining damage of Snowden’s actions.
Al-Qaeda
On Thursday, their U.K. counterparts followed suit, with a televised testimony before the House of Commons Intelligence and Security Committee. They also echoed similar sentiments, warning that al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups had benefited much from the revelations.
Iain Lobban, chief of U.K. intelligence agency GCHQ, said his spies have picked up “near-daily discussion” of the unauthorized disclosures among his agency’s targets. His colleague John Sawers, the chief of the British foreign spy agency MI6, was even more explicit.
“It’s clear that our adversaries are rubbing their hands in glee,” he told lawmakers. “Al-Qaeda is lapping it up.”
Lobban came closest to giving a concrete example, saying that GCHQ had caught terror groups in the Middle East and elsewhere discussing how to switch to more secure means of communication after the Snowden leaks broke.
“I am not going to compound the damage by being specific in public,” he said, promising lawmakers a private briefing on the details.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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