Beijing Faces Population Explosion, 17.5 Million in 2009

For the past few years, Beijing has repeatedly failed to meet the goals and plans for population control.
Beijing Faces Population Explosion, 17.5 Million in 2009
6/19/2010
Updated:
6/21/2010
Beijing is well known for its shortage of resources, but soon it may also become known for having the largest city population in the world.

For the past few years, Beijing has repeatedly failed to meet the goals and plans for population control. As the correlative data indicates, the growth of permanent resident population has exceeded expectations and will surpass 21 million by 2020.

At present, the population of Beijing is reaching the ultimate carrying capacity due to the resource shortage. On its way to world modernization, Beijing’s growing at such a breakneck speed, along with sharply changing size and age structure of the population, could become exceptional.

Despite all, the question that always comes back is, “What is the maximum carrying capacity of Beijing?”—a topic that was first discussed 20 years ago. Back then, some people said Beijing could handle eight million people, while others said 10 million. It wasn’t until 2003 that the State Council published Beijing City Master Plan (2004–2020), which put forward a thought that Beijing will be able to control any population below 18 million by 2020.

However, the reality has boosted the 10-year projection. On Jan. 21, 2010, Beijing authorities announced that the permanent resident population had grown up to 17,550,000 people by the end of 2009, a 600,000 rise compared to the previous year’s population. If this growth rate continues, Beijing’s population will reach the current national population of Australia, which is 21 million, by 2020.

According to China Business Times, as a huge resource-import city that lacks natural resources, Beijing needs 98 percent resource import from other locales. According to the statistics, by every increase of non-farming population of 100,000 people, the direct household energy consumption will increase by 14.21 tons and the indirect household energy consumption will increase by 23.46 tons per year. If the population growth continues on as it has in the past, Beijing will face the intractable issue of water shortage.

The population growth is causing conspicuous conflicts on public service supplements. The number of non-local children that are taking their compulsory education in Beijing has gone up tremendously from 90,000 in 2000 to 418,000 in 2009, composing 40 percent of the total student body. The population explosion has also generated huge amounts of household garbage, shortening the usable time of landfill and causing the average age of landfill to decrease to about four years. In addition, Beijing is currently sixth from the bottom on the list of atmosphere pollution control in China’s 113 main cities.

Beijing’s issue of population is not only of the amount of people, but even more of the age structure. According to the residential registration in 2009, the percentage of 60-year-olds or above was over 18 percent, and it is expected to reach 29 percent by 2020. As the population ages, the problem of talent and professional shortage will be hard to solve. Since the population growth and age structure go hand in hand, the difficulty of finding the solution and the complexity of the population issue will be intensified.
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