Chinese Danger?
However, others worry that China’s influence is not benign. As with the development of other routes in the OBOR, concerns include the possibility of “debt traps,” as was the case with Sri Lanka, which had to turn control of strategic ports over to Chinese state-owned companies after accumulating more than $1 billion in debt.Other fears include growing Chinese political influence and strategic encroachment. Last year, for example, the Danish government repurchased a shuttered military base in Greenland that had been sold to a private buyer, out of fear that the Chinese regime might try to buy the facility.
Beijing’s demand for a more prominent role in Arctic governance has also unsettled the shaky equilibrium between nations in the region.
Polar cooperation has largely been directed through the Arctic Council. So far, the organization, which does not deal with security issues, has managed to balance the interests of its members.
Arctic Potential
Currently, there is too little activity to evaluate the impact of an “Arctic Silk Road” or China’s true long-term intentions. In 2016, for example, there were only 19 commercial polar crossings. That same year, more than 75,000 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.Nevertheless, the prospects for economic development in the Arctic are growing. Finland and Norway are considering building an Arctic railway between Norway’s ice-free port at Kirkenes and the city of Rovaniemi in Finland.
Western Response
The West has offered no coherent response to the Chinese investments in polar regions and Beijing’s demand to play a larger role in Arctic governance. Yet, there are signs of change, as there are worries about its destabilizing impact on the global order.The most significant element is shifting attitudes toward China in Western Europe. Even as Beijing seeks to expand commercial ties and investments, governments are increasingly wary of Chinese influence.
This is partly reflected by Europe’s growing interest in instituting processes similar to those used by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States (CFIUS). Nordic governments are the most skeptical about China.
Even European Union representatives, in private conversations, press for more transatlantic deliberations and assessments of China’s long-term goals. In contrast, the United Kingdom stands alone among major European powers in its reluctance to let go of the presumption that China’s rise will be a benign influence on the continent.
Canada, a major Arctic power, takes its role and influence in the region seriously. However, it has yet to demonstrate any significant concern over Chinese polar activity. Canada claims sovereignty over proposed shipping routes mentioned in Beijing’s 2018 white paper.
The role the United States will play is pivotal but unclear. Last year, Washington completed its term as the chair of the Arctic Council. U.S. leadership, at the time, was indecisive.
It did recently complete an Indo-Pacific framework that addresses the OBOR overall. However, there is a lot on the administration’s plate at the moment.
No Leadership, No Pressure
In the near term, the most likely scenario is that the West will fail to make a coordinated response to China’s Arctic Silk Road. The United States will not provide decisive leadership, nor will other Arctic nations fully reconcile their desire for Chinese commercial investments and their national security concerns.On the other hand, China is unlikely to make significant inroads by playing a more prominent role in the Arctic Council or influencing the behavior of the Nordic states, such as Iceland, Russia, or Canada. Still, there will likely be some piecemeal efforts foreshadowing a more structured national security response, including the expansion of CFIUS-like processes in Europe.
The United States will likely revamp its Unified Command Plan, shifting primary coordinating responsibility to the U.S. European Command to better harmonize Arctic security policies with NATO allies.
Canada will undoubtedly continue to object to NATO addressing the Arctic as a security issue. If and when China makes some definitive strides in the region, this attitude will change, as will the Arctic’s priority in the eyes of Western powers.
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